To acknowledge the importance of random events is not to suggest that success is independent of talent and effort. In highly competitive arenas, those who do well are almost always extremely talented and hard-working. As Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Warren E. Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has said, “The safest way to get what you want is to try and deserve what you want.”
认可偶然事件的重要性,不是为了证明成功不依赖于天赋和努力。事实上,在竞争极为激烈的领域,表现好的人几乎总是极具天赋而又非常勤勉的人。就像沃伦·E·巴菲特(Warren E. Buffett)的控股公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的副董事长查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)曾经说过的,“要得到自己想要的东西,最稳妥的办法就是努力让自己变成值得拥有那一切的人。”
Perhaps the most useful advice for someone who aspires to material success is to develop expertise at a task that others value. Such expertise comes not from luck but from thousands of hours of assiduous effort.
对于渴望获得物质成功的人士来说,最有用的建议或许是在被他人看重的某一领域掌握自己的专长。这种专长不可能来自运气,而是要靠成千上万个小时的刻苦努力。
But talent and effort are not enough. Luck also matters. Even the most able, industrious people in South Sudan have little chance at success. Success is not guaranteed for deserving people in wealthy countries with highly developed legal and educational institutions and other infrastructure, but it’s substantially more likely.
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