国际英语资讯:Yearender: U.S. economy could slow down in 2019 amid risks: economists_时事

国际英语资讯:Yearender: U.S. economy could slow down in 2019 amid risks: economists

The Conference Board projected a continuous tightening monetary policy but probably at a moderate pace, "unless inflation emerges much faster than anticipated."

GLOBAL RISKS

The world economy is showing clear signs of a downshift, with both developed and emerging economies expected to expand at a slower speed. Their deflating growth can, in turn, weigh on the U.S. economy.

BofA Merrill Lynch said in its 2019 outlook that global growth is expected to dip from 3.8 percent in 2018 to 3.6 percent in 2019 amid potential risks, adding that the slowing growth is likely a benign slowdown, instead of a "recession."

A less friendly policy environment suggests a significant slowing in growth globally and risks including uncertainties caused by lingering global trade tensions and Brexit are skewed to the downside, according to analysts.

Moreover, a poll of economists by Reuters in October cautioned that an escalation of global trade actions could lead to substantial slowdown in U.S. economy by 2019.

"There would be no winners from a global trade war...all countries would ultimately be worse off compared to the status quo," noted Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics. It "would inflict lasting damage to growth and cause a permanent loss of output," he added.

"Looking beyond 2019, the main concerns are slower growth of labor supply and modest projections of productivity growth," said Bart van Ark, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at The Conference Board.