Gradual fiscal consolidation may also be stimulative in the short run. Research by Hoover Institution economists concludes that reducing federal spending relative to GDP to pre-financial-crisis levels over a decade would increase GDP in the short and long term. This outcome reflects lower future tax rates and the boost from lower interest rates to investment and net exports.
短期来看,逐步的财政整固可能具有刺激效应。胡佛研究所(Hoover Institution)经济学家的研究结论是,在十年之内将联邦支出与GDP之比降低至金融危机之前的水平,可以在短期和长期提高GDP。这一结果表明,未来税率会降低,较低的利率会促进投资和净出口。
Our tax code discourages work and entrepreneurship, saving and investment, and distorts the allocation of capital. Sweeping tax reform offers one of the best chances to raise growth; by this I mean reform which reduces marginal tax rates on work, investment and saving, and reduces tax preferences for particular industries and assets. With highly mobile capital, high US rates discourage investment in the US (with attendant job creation) by US and foreign firms, suggesting that economic estimates of growth effects of tax reform may be conservative.
美国的税收规则挫败了人们在工作与创业、储蓄与投资方面的积极性,并扭曲了资本分配。广泛的税收改革会为促进增长提供最好的机会。我所说的改革是指降低工作、投资、储蓄方面的边际税率,并减少对特定行业和资产的税收优惠。由于资本具有高度流动性,美国较高的税率打击了本国和外国公司在美国的投资(进而阻碍了创造就业),表明关于税收改革对增长影响的经济预期可能是保守的。
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