之所以说是正确的,是因为美国面临着增长的结构性障碍。这些障碍就像人体的赘肉一样。当我们行走在平坦的路面上时,这些赘肉似乎不会使我们的速度减缓多少,但当我们上楼或者爬坡时,就是一种沉重的负担。金融危机爆发以来,美国没能进行结构性调整,这使得经济受到的创伤变得更加严重。结构性问题不能归咎于某一任总统,但评价政策日程的一个重要标准就是它是否意识到并着手缓解这些问题。
While a growth-focused agenda would have many parts, two fiscal policy issues stand out – getting our fiscal house in order and reforming the tax code. The US is on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory, with a debt-to-gross domestic product ratio projected to rise to second world war levels in the coming years. High and rising debt burdens are a structural impediment to growth. They raise expected future tax burdens, discouraging investment and limiting productivity growth. Some recent estimates of this adverse effect suggest our debt-to-GDP levels would reduce expected growth by half a percentage point per year over the next decade. How debt reduction occurs is also important. Recent research by Alberto Alesina of Harvard, and others, has emphasised that reducing transfer spending is more likely to lead to long-lasting decrease in debt and support for growth than raising taxes.
以增长为重点的政策日程由很多部分构成,但两个财政政策上的问题尤其重要:稳定财政秩序,改革税收制度。目前美国财政处于一种不可持续的轨道上,预计未来几年,债务与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率将上升到二战时期的水平。过重并且还在不断增加的债务负担是增长中的一个结构性障碍。它使得未来税收负担预期增加,从而会打消投资积极性、抑制生产率提高。最近对这些不利影响的评估表明,美国债务与GDP比率所处的水平,在未来十年内会导致预期增长率平均每年下降0.5个百分点。如何降低债务也很重要。哈佛大学(Harvard)的阿尔贝托·阿莱西纳(Alberto Alesina)等人最近的研究结果强调,减少转移支付比增税更有可能带来长期性的债务降低,并为经济增长提供支持。
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2020-09-15
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