Demand in the longer term will be supported by growing electrification in emerging markets in Asia, and motor industry growth in China and India. The outlook emboldened some miners (Anglo, Rio and Xstrata) to go ahead with projects; others (BHP Billiton) slowed them, amid fears of a looming glut. Either way, investors should prefer names with access to high-grade ore and lower cash costs. Wood Mackenzie data put Rio, Freeport-McMoRanand BHP Billitonat the low end of the cost curve. New projects for Xstrata could reshuffle the pack. As ever, the real winners will be those suppliers that best gauge demand.
长期来看,亚洲新兴市场地区的电子化程度上升以及中国和印度汽车工业的发展将对铜的需求构成支撑。这一前景让英美资源、力拓以及斯特拉塔(Xstrata)等矿产企业有胆量放手推进新项目;而必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等其他企业则放缓了项目进度,因担心未来供给可能过剩。不论最终出现的是哪种情况,投资者应该更加关注拥有高品级矿源以及低现金成本的企业。在能源资讯公司Wood Mackenzie看来,力拓、自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司(Freeport-McMoRan)以及必和必拓处于成本曲线的低端。斯特拉塔的新矿产项目则有可能使该序列重排。和以往一样,真正的赢家将是那些能够最为准确地预测市场需求的供应商。
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