欧洲央行救得了欧元吗？_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

欧洲央行救得了欧元吗？

后一种似乎可能性较大，因为欧洲央行很难停下脚步。但这同样可能产生糟糕后果。正如我的同事沃尔夫冈·明肖(Wolfgang Münchau)在最近一篇专栏中所说，在德国战后最受尊敬的机构德国央行反对无限制购债计划的带动下，德国舆论对该国资金流向普遍反感。不难想象，如果一个重要成员国开始违反约定的政策条件，而欧洲央行继续购买该国债券，那么在德国国内会发生什么。冲天的怒气不会加强人们对欧元不可逆性的信心。没人能够确定德国政界人士将选择如何回应，或者被允许如何回应。目前德国政府相当支持欧洲央行，但这种支持肯定不是在任何情况下都能维系的。

In brief, a conditional programme of bond purchases, implemented against the opposition of the Bundesbank, just cannot make the eurozone credibly irreversible.

简言之，在德国央行反对的情况下实施的有条件债券购买计划，无法可信地保证欧元区的不可逆性。

Is there any way the ECB on its own could make it more credible that the eurozone will last?

欧洲央行有没有办法凭借一己之力，让欧元区的生存前景更加可信？

The answer is: yes and no.

答案是：有和没有。

Yes, if people believed membership of the eurozone were clearly in everyone’s interests, its survival would become far more credible. For that to happen, deficit countries need growth and jobs. The ECB could contribute by stepping harder on the monetary accelerator. After all, short-term economic prospects are dismal: the ECB forecasts real economic growth in the eurozone at -0.6 per cent to -0.2 per cent this year and -0.4 – 1.4 per cent in 2013. By the second quarter of 2012, eurozone nominal gross domestic product was a mere 3.4 per cent higher than in the first quarter of 2010.