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难以预测的美元走势

There are some pockets of resilience. Hedge funds have shown a particular interest in the dollar-yen pair, with speculation that the Bank of Japan would add to its asset purchasing programme this week helping the dollar to rise more than 3 per cent against the yen in the past month.

在一个美元占据86%交易的市场上，这个问题很严重。投行表示，汇市交易量一直在下降，有些交易员选择降低报给客户的价格。英国毅联汇业(ICAP)旗下交易平台EBS的数据显示，9月份外汇日交易量同比下降39%。

Other traders are hoping that forex trading will pick up after the outcome of the US election. Some have been reacting to US economic data on the basis that stronger figures could make an Obama victory more likely. A Romney victory is widely seen as a dollar-positive outcome, partly because Mr Romney has voiced his dislike of loose monetary policy and partly because traders think his corporate tax breaks could encourage companies to repatriate foreign earnings.

不过市场中仍然存在富有活力的角落。对冲基金一直对美元-日元交易特别感兴趣，它们猜测，日本央行(Bank of Japan)本周将增加其资产购买计划，而这一猜测在过去一个月帮助把美元兑日元汇率推高了3%。

But many are opting not to throw another variable into the already uncertain mix.

还有一些交易员希望，外汇交易将在美国大选尘埃落定之后提速。针对美国经济数据，有些交易员一直以来的应对依据是，较强的经济数据将增加奥巴马(Obama)获胜的几率。但市场普遍将罗姆尼(Romney)获胜看作美元的利好因素，这部分是由于罗姆尼公开表示不支持宽松货币政策，部分是由于交易员认为他的企业减税方案可能鼓励企业将海外利润汇回美国。

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