缓慢发酵的西班牙银行业危机,意味着有大量分析报告可供参考。不过,多重性不会带来一致。国际货币基金组织(IMF)认为,把国内银行的资本缓冲提高至新的巴塞尔协议III的标准,总共需要400亿欧元(主要通过加强二线银行实现)。依此推论,高达1000亿欧元的援助承诺,可提供充足的余量。但评级机构惠誉(Fitch)则估计,需要500亿至600亿欧元——如果爱尔兰那种房地产相关亏损再现,则需要900亿至1000亿欧元。一些私营部门的预测更为悲观:巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)估计,基本情景下需要700亿至800亿欧元,在极度压力的情景下升至1260亿欧元。
All of which underscores how interrelated bank sector losses are with Spain’s broader economic malaise. Property-related loans were 37 per cent of gross domestic output at the end of 2011: corporate debt was 186 per cent, the highest in the eurozone, aside from Ireland. Yet the economy is likely to contract by 2 per cent this year; unemployment is 24 per cent and rising; and perhaps 1m residential units overhang the property market. Vulnerabilities are obvious. Better news, short term, is that Spain’s future net debt issuance needs should now be very modest in 2012 – no small comfort given uncertainties surrounding Greece’s election rerun. But while European leaders may have improved on bailout choreography the fourth time around, the real steps needed – commitment to the eurozone’s periphery and more focus on growth – are unchanged.
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