"This trade negotiation was predicated on the idea (by Trump) that they have to regain in the United States manufacturing jobs," Antweiler said. "It's an illusion, because these jobs have simply vanished due to technology and not due to trade."
Given that NAFTA is 23-year-old, it's wise to update the pact to keep it aligned with technology and the modern, complex supply chain, said Tomasz Swiecki, an assistant professor at the Vancouver School of Economics at UBC.
"The auto industry is now so intertwined it is hard to imagine (NAFTA) coming apart without serious repercussions for productivity in all the countries," he said Thursday.
Swiecki also blasted Trump's "simple view" of bilateral trade deficits. "A (trade deficit) is a very irrelevant statistic in itself, especially in bilateral trade," he said. "When we are negotiating between three countries, we all buy and sell to each other, in the circle."
Trump has seized on trade deficits as political fodder because it makes it look like Mexico is ripping America off, he said. "I can see how this has some political appeal, facts notwithstanding."
If NAFTA falls apart, it would present a set-back for global trade, but would not be a fatal blow, Swiecki said, noting that the World Trade Organization framework would still be in effect for trade and potential disputes involving Canada and its trading partners.
"To be fair, I would say probably in this scrapping of Trans Pacific Partnership (by the United States) was a more important development, because it tells us something about the sentiment in the current U.S. administration, which is still the major player in international trade," he said.
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