The impact of such a tight credit environment becomes clear when the size of China’s totalcorporate debt service burden is calculated. Given that non-financial total corporate debt isestimated by McKinsey to amount to $12.5tn, Chinese companies are paying on a nominalbasis some $812bn in interest payments each year. In real terms, this amounts to $1.35tn.This is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year; it isslightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico.

若将中国企业总偿债负担的规模考虑进来，这种紧缩信贷环境的影响就变得清晰起来。根据麦肯锡(McKinsey)估计，中国的非金融企业债总额为12.5万亿美元，因此中国企业每年偿付的名义债息约为8120亿美元。若按实际利率计算，债息则为1.35万亿美元。这不仅远远大于今年中国工业利润总额的预期值，而且还略大于墨西哥等大型新兴经济体的产出规模。

Beijing has several policy options at its disposal to keep a full-blown credit crunch at bay. Mostanalysts expect China to keep cutting interest rates while seeking to alleviate deflation by kick-starting infrastructure projects and invigorating the property sector. There are signs thatsuch efforts are starting to bear fruit.

中国政府要想避免爆发全面信贷危机，有几个政策选项可供选择。多数分析师预计，中国将继续降低利率，同时通过启动基建项目和刺激房地产业来缓解通缩。有迹象表明，这些努力正开始奏效。

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