预警: 金融世界过度膨胀的先兆_时事

预警: 金融世界过度膨胀的先兆

政策制定者和投资者应该据此得出什么结论?如果你想乐观一点，你可以将此视为动物精神值得欢迎的回归。2008年金融危机爆发后最初那段时间，企业高管受到了如此大创伤，也感到如此恐慌，因此他们把削减企业债务和成本放在第一位。但现在那些头衔里挂着“首席两个字的企业高管(C-suite)更乐于进取了。尤其引人瞩目的是，当前的并购热潮不是像科技热时期那样，仅席卷了一个行业，而是席卷了包括零售、石油、制药和科技在内的众多行业。

But there is a second, darker interpretation of this trend: namely that the western financialsystem is drowning in excess cash and credit. History suggests such a scenario rarely endswell. After all, the crucial point about the two previous M&A peaks is that they coincidedwith equity and credit bubbles. Shortly afterwards, those bubbles burst — with painfulconsequences.

但对这种趋势的另一种较为悲观的解读是：西方金融体系正淹没在过多的现金和信贷当中。历史经验显示，此类境况很少会有好的结果。毕竟，关于前两次并购交易高潮的一个关键事实是，它们正好与股票和信贷出现泡沫的时间重合。在前两次并购交易创出最高纪录后不久，那些泡沫都破裂了，并带来了令人痛苦的后果。

Moreover, the backdrop to the current M&A flurry is unnerving. Since the 2008 crisisAmerican corporate profits have surged to record levels: Goldman Sachs, for example,calculates that margins for the S&P 500 (excluding financials and utilities) are about 9 percent. In normal circumstances, that should have sparked a corporate investment boom;indeed, this is what policy makers have been desperately hoping to see.