Many development economists talk of a “middle-income trap, where economies stall atrelatively low levels of per capita gross domestic product. To increase trend growth, emergingmarkets will have to address the full range of structural impediments to expansion. Thismeans not just the traditional issues of streamlining regulation and building infrastructurebut also the more complex challenges of improving education, promoting competition anddesigning regulation to develop high value-added service sectors.

许多研究发展问题的经济学家会提到“中等收入陷阱，这是指经济发展到人均国内生产总值(GDP)还相对较低时就停滞不前了。为了提高趋势增长率，新兴经济体必须清除阻碍经济扩张的一切结构性障碍。这意味着，不仅要解决理顺监管和建设基础设施等传统问题，而且要应对更复杂的挑战——改善教育，促进竞争，以及进行监管设计、以发展高附加值的服务业。

Even if that happens, it is unlikely to show big improvements in the short term. Economies donot instantaneously leap on to a long-term high-growth path even if the right policies arefollowed. But if emerging countries are to return to leading global economic growth, there isno other way. For emerging markets, the years of easy growth from cheap money and fatcommodity earnings are over. The need for reform has now become acute.

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