Should China's investors be expected to cheer aninterest rate cut or not?

降息会不会引来中国投资者的欢呼?

Going by popular belief, a stock market rally is thenorm. But going by an analysis of the People'sBank of China's previous easing efforts, it's about50-50, writes Peter Wells. (But those are prettymuch the odds as to whether Chinese shares will beup or down on any day, aren't they.)

按照流行的观点，降息通常会带来股市上涨。然而，对中国央行此前几次宽松举措的分析显示，股市上涨和下跌的可能性大约各占一半。(不过，中国股市任意一天上涨和下跌的可能性不也是各占一半吗?)

 

 

Something that is a little clearer, though, is that the PBoC's rate cuts in this cycle have generallybeen cheered by investors. The interest rate cut at the weekend to a record low 4.85 per cent isthe sixth since easing cycle began in July 2012. In the sessions that have followed those ratecuts, the Shanghai Composite has risen four times out of five, and the average performance isa 1.2 per cent gain (see table).

但是，更明确一些的事实是，在这轮周期中，中国央行的降息举措一般都受到了投资者的欢迎。上周末，中国央行将贷款基准利率降至4.85%的创纪录低点，此次降息是2012年7月开始的这轮宽松周期以来的第六次。在前五次降息后的交易日，上证综指上涨了四次，平均上涨幅度是1.2%(见图表)。

【降息能否推高中国股市 How have Chinese investors responded to rate cuts】相关文章：

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