Forward markets are telling us that interest rates are going to be muchfar lower than pre-crisisaverage policy rates since 1945 for the US, UK, the eurozone and Japan, which wererespectively 3 per cent, 7 per cent, 3 per cent and 4 per cent.
期货市场行情告诉我们,未来美国、英国、欧元区和日本的利率将远低于从1945年至危机爆发那段时期的平均水平,后者分别为3%、7%、3%和4%。
In other words, the markets are saying that this time is different, a formulation that is reliablydangerous when it comes to predicting the future. Of course, some things really are different.For much of the postwar period most central banks were not independent, though whetherindependence has been the driving force behind prolonged disinflation is another matter, as isthe question of whether central banks will remain independent in future.
换言之,市场在说“这次不一样;就预测未来而言,这种说法难免是危险的。当然,有些事情真的不一样了。战后很长时期里,多数央行不是独立的——尽管央行独立地位是不是持续通胀减缓的推动因素是另一个问题,而央行未来能不能保持独立也是一个问题。
Given the quasi-fiscal nature of their activities since the crisis and the risk thatunconventional measures pose to their balance sheets, the possibility of a political land-grabin monetary policy is not negligible.
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