China’s stock market has been a rollercoaster despite — or perhaps because of — a remarkable (even for China) level of government involvement. And the ability of the Chinese government to deliver the rapid growth on which its legitimacy increasingly depends is very much open to question.
在美国,由于医疗费用大幅削减,联邦政府的财政状况可以说是多年以来最健康的,然而其海外领地波多黎各却面临着美国历史上最大规模的市政债违约。
In the US, while the fiscal picture at the federal level appears healthier than it has in a long time, thanks to a marked slowdown in healthcare costs, Puerto Rico is on the brink of the largest municipal bond default in American history.
托尔斯泰(Tolstoy)曾说:“幸福的家庭都是相似的,不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。同样地,上述问题也各有各的成因。然而,对于金融政策制定者及其背后的政治家来说,可以从这一系列危机中吸取几点共同的教训。其中有两点尤为重要。
Tolstoy observed that all happy families are alike but each unhappy family is miserable in its own way. In the same way, each of these situations is driven by its own dynamics. But their concatenation does warrant reflection on some common lessons for financial policymakers and their political masters. Two stand out.
首先,经济法则像自然法则一样,存在且不受政治意志的支配。金融危机、大衰退以及不平等程度的急剧上升,都促使人们从负面的角度对不受约束的自由市场进行重新审视。这情有可原。然而,不能据此认为政府可以依靠指令使经济按自己意愿运行。诚然,希腊问题与其失败的经济政策有关。希腊的财政紧缩幅度超过了其GDP的20%,导致了其经济的萧条。然而,对于一个无法自由地采取宽松的货币政策,或者实现货币贬值的经济体来说,这并不足为奇。即使政策制定者想要改变局势,他们也无能为力。
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