JPMorgan has also furrowed its brow at China’s capital flow data. Strategists led by NikolaosPanigirtzoglou in London estimate capital outflows amounted to $520bn combined over the pastfive quarters. “The current capital outflow episode in China is a more sustained and severeepisode relative to those seen in the past, they wrote.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)也对中国的资本流动数据感到悲观。以常驻伦敦的尼可拉斯堠尼吉左格鲁(NikolaosPanigirtzoglou)为首的几名策略师估计,过去五个季度的资本流出总额达到5200亿美元。“相对于以往的资本外流,中国此轮资本外流更持久和严重,他们写道。
Yet several China-based economists caution that Goldman and JPMorgan use estimates that failto account for subtler factors. In a report published several days after Mr Panigirtzoglou’s,JPMorgan’s own chief China economist, Zhu Haibin, obliquely contradicted his colleague’sestimate by citing several reasons that made him believe that the estimates were inflated.
然而,多名中国经济学家告诫称,高盛和摩根大通所用的估计,没有考虑到一些比较细微的因素。在潘尼吉左格鲁的报告发表几天后,摩根大通的首席中国经济学家朱海斌婉转地反驳了同事们的估计,他提出了几条理由,以证明同事们的估算数据偏高。
One is a shift in China’s foreign exchange holdings between the central bank and the privatesector. Until recently, the PBoC held almost all foreign exchange within China as officialreserves, while banks, companies, and households held little.
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