美联储看来要犯严重错误_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

美联储看来要犯严重错误

Much more plausible is the view that, for reasons rooted in technological and demographicchange and reinforced by greater regulation of the financial sector, the global economy hasdifficulty generating demand for all that can be produced. This is the “secular stagnationdiagnosis, or the very similar idea that Ben Bernanke, former Fed chairman, has urged of a“savings glut. Satisfactory growth, if it can be achieved, requires very low interest rates thathistorically we have only seen during economic crises. This is why long term bond markets aretelling us that real interest rates are expected to be close to zero in the industrialised worldover the next decade.

可信得多的观点是，出于一些源自技术与人口结构变化、而且被金融行业更严厉监管强化的原因，全球经济无法为所有可以生产出来的产品创造出需求。这是一种“长期停滞的诊断，非常类似于美联储前主席本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在呼吁消除“储蓄过剩时提出的观点。令人满意的增长——如果可以实现的话——需要实行历史上仅仅在经济危机期间看到的极低利率。这就是为什么长期债券市场告诉我们，预计未来10年里工业化国家的实际利率会接近于零。

New conditions require new policies. There is much that should be done, such as steps topromote public and private investment so as to raise the level of real interest rates consistentwith full employment. Unless these new policies are implemented, inflation sharply accelerates,or euphoria in markets breaks out, there is no case for the Fed to adjust policy interest rates.