中国放缓危及安倍经济学_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

中国放缓危及安倍经济学

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其《溢出效应报告》(Spillover Report)中尝试模拟中国经济低迷的影响。2014年的报告显示，在中国经济低迷冲击下，新兴市场增速每下滑1个百分点，将导致日本增速下滑0.5个百分点;其对日本的影响是对美国的影响的5倍。

In addition, China’s slowdown is having a broader deflationary effect, most obviously throughcommodity prices. Oil’s drop to about $40 a barrel all but destroys the BoJ’s schedule forgetting inflation back to 2 per cent. Its forecasts are predicated on a bounce in prices to $70or $75 a barrel.

另外，中国经济放缓正产生更为广泛的通缩效应，在大宗商品价格方面表现的最为明显。油价降至每桶40美元左右，几乎会摧毁日本央行令通胀回到2%的计划。日本央行的预测基于油价反弹至每桶70美元或75美元。

“Although the oil price fall should have a favourable impact on economic activity in the longerterm, in the short term it has a downward impact on inflation via the drop in energy pricessuch as gasoline and electricity, said Mr Kuroda.

黑田东彦表示：“较长期而言，油价下跌应会对经济活动产生有利影响，但短期内，通过带动汽油和电力等能源价格下跌，将对通胀造成下行影响。

Economists at Citi in Tokyo estimate the drag on inflation from energy prices will reach 1.5percentage points by October, and stay above 1 percentage point in the middle of 2016, makinga dip into headline deflation more likely.