经过一周空前的震荡后,中国及其他地区的股市仍处于努力重新站稳脚跟的阶段。在这种情况下,洞悉市场的政策制定者在采取一些可能让仍然焦虑的投资者情绪更加不稳定的措施前,应该继续等待尘埃落定。
This phenomenon, of taking the right policy step at the wrong time from a marketsperspective, is not limited to China. The US Federal Reserve has experienced it several times,including when it triggered a “taper tantrum in May-June 2013: the sudden announcementthat it intended to ease — or taper — monetary stimulus that threw global markets in a dizzyfor a few weeks, and that forced the Fed to talk back its statement.
这种现象——从市场的角度看,在错误时间采取正确的政策措施——并不只发生在中国。美联储(Fed)已经历过多次,包括在2013年5月至6月间引发的一场“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum):美联储突然宣布打算放缓(或缩减)货币刺激,引发全球市场几个周的动荡,并迫使美联储收回了自己的声明。
As it engages further on the road of economic liberalisation and broader market-based reforms,China will learn something that other countries have done so painfully, be it elsewhere in theemerging world (Brazil or South Korea, for example) or in the advanced world. It has nochoice but to be a lot more sensitive to short-term market positioning, including the potentialfor sudden portfolio reversals that then risk spilling back on to the real economy andundermining the effectiveness of policies.
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2020-09-15
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