随着在经济自由化和更广泛市场化改革的道路上进一步深入,中国将学到一些其他国家——无论是其他新兴市场国家(如巴西和韩国)还是发达国家——已有过的惨痛教训。中国别无选择,只能对短期市场资源配置更加敏感,包括投资组合突然反转、随后风险蔓延至实体经济并削弱政策有效性的可能性。
Such sensitivity will need to be accompanied by much better communication, as well as moresophisticated management of market expectations (and this does not include the intimidationof sellers and the public shaming of financial journalists). Otherwise, the credibility of theChinese government itself, including its history of admirable policymaking and vision, would berepeatedly tested by disgruntled and unstable financial markets; and, were this to materialise,the repercussions would inevitably be felt by financial markets in the rest of the world.
这样的敏感需要伴随更好的沟通,以及更成熟的市场预期管理(而这不包括对卖方的恐吓以及对财经记者的公开羞辱)。否则,中国政府自身的公信力——包括其令人钦佩的决策和愿景构想历史——将受到满腹牢骚的不稳定金融市场的反复考验;而如果真是这样的话,影响将不可避免地波及到世界其他地区的金融市场。
Mohamed is chief economic adviser to Allianz, chairman of President Barack Obama’s GlobalDevelopment Council, and author of When Markets Collide
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