First, it is worth teasing out the nature and extent of Keynes’s error. He was right to predictthat we would be working less. We enter the workforce later, after long and not-always-arduous courses of study. We enjoy longer retirements. The work week itself is gettingshorter. In non-agricultural employment in the US, the week was 69 hours in 1830 — theequivalent of working 11 hours a day but only three hours on Sundays. By 1930, a full-timework week was 47 hours; each decade, American workers were working two hours less everyweek.
首先,我们有必要探究一下凯恩斯错误的性质和程度。他预测我们的工作时间将变少,这是对的。如今的人们在经过漫长(且不总是勤奋)的学习后才进入职场。我们享受着更长的退休阶段。每周工作时间在缩短。1830年,在美国非农业部门,人们每周工作69小时,相当于每天工作11个小时,只是周日工作3小时。到1930年,全职员工的每周工作时间为47小时;每10年,美国劳动者每周的工作时间会减少两小时。
But Keynes overestimated how rapidly and for how long that trend would continue. By 1970the work week was down to 39 hours. If the work week had continued to shrink, we would beworking 30-hour weeks by now, and perhaps 25-hour weeks by 2030. But by around 1970, theslacking-off stopped. Why?
但凯恩斯高估了这一趋势持续的速度和时间。到1970年,每周工作时间降至39小时。如果每周工作时间继续减少的话,我们现在的每周工作时间将达到30个小时,到2030年将达到25个小时。但是,到了1970年前后,这种缩减趋势停止了。为什么呢?
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