His arch-rival, Jean-Charles Decaux, the boss of Frances JCDecaux, agrees that there will be a significant switch to digital, but mainly inside airports, railway stations, shopping malls and other controlled environments. Ads in bus shelters and other outdoor spots at risk of vandalism will take a lot longer to move away from paper, Mr Decaux thinks. Digital displays already account for about one-quarter of his companys sales in transport hubs, but for less than 5% in street furniture and billboards.
The pace of the switch to digital is but the least of several areas of disagreement between the two men. JCDecaux boasted in February that it had overtaken Clear Channel to become the worlds largest out-of-home ad company, with revenues of 2.4 billion last year. It is rare that a European media company is bigger than an American one, says Mr Decaux. Because his group is less indebted than the others, Mr Decaux says it could consider buying the American operations of CBS Outdoor, the world number three, or indeed those of Clear Channel itself, if the opportunity arose.
Mr Eccleshare dismisses such provocative talk, noting that Mr Decaux has repeatedly talked of big acquisitions in Americawhere it is a weak number four in the marketwithout anything happening. He acknowledges that there will be consolidation in the highly fragmented industry, though he expects it to take place within, rather than across, national borders. For instance, China has 60,000 out-of-home advertising firms, many of them microbusinesses with one or two signs, and is clearly ripe for rationalisation.
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