与此同时,在阿富汗北部的北约军队正在竭力清除中亚地区的伊斯兰军事团体。尤其是IMU,已经构成一种长期的威胁,并且现在它还与基地组织(al-Qaeda)以及巴基斯坦的虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Taiba)有密切联系。上世纪九十年代末,IMU只有几百名来自乌兹别克和塔吉克的战斗人员,如今该组织已经聚集了来自中亚各国、中国、土耳其、阿塞拜疆以及车臣的数千名武装分子。
Yet for all the anxiety in Moscow and Washington about the shifting balance of power in Afghanistan, it does not represent the greatest threat to central Asia. What could really undermine the ex-Soviet states is the increasing pauperisation of their people, the collapse of services such as health and education, and the excesses of dictators and failure of governments – except for Kyrgyzstan’s – to carry out any political, social or economic reforms. Unfortunately as the new Great Game continues, both Russia and the US are ignoring the social and economic crisis that is about to erupt in central Asia. That crisis will not be because of Afghanistan.
尽管俄罗斯和美国方面都很担忧阿富汗力量平衡出现的变化,但中亚面临的最大威胁并不在此。对这些前苏联加盟共和国而言,真正的危险可能在于是其民众日益贫困、医疗和教育等服务体系陷入瘫痪、独裁统治者荒淫无道,以及政府无力实施任何政治、社会或经济改革(吉尔吉斯斯坦除外)。令人遗憾的是,在这场新的大角逐的延续过程中,俄罗斯和美国都忽视了中亚可能会爆发的社会和经济危机,而这场危机的诱因将不是阿富汗。
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