可话说回来,失败的风险和后果被夸大了。即使谈判破裂,自动生效的6000亿美元增税和支出削减也并不意味着经济将被击垮。其影响将在2013年全年逐渐感受到。短期来看,信心可能会受到巨大冲击,但这种威胁更像是一个“滑坡,而不是“悬崖。国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预测,如果僵局无法打破,美国经济明年可能会收缩0.5%,尽管不是什么好消息,但按照欧洲标准,这远远算不上是一场灾难。
In any event, the odds must favour at least a partial deal. The other day Paul Ryan’s office was asked whether the vice-presidential candidate still felt bound by the lobbyist Grover Norquist’s infamous taxpayer protection pledge. The carefully formulated reply was that the Tea Party favourite owed allegiance to the constitution and to the voters of Wisconsin. This sounds like progress.
无论如何,最大的可能性是各方至少会达成部分协议。前几天,保罗·瑞恩(Paul Ryan)的办公室被问及,这位副总统候选人是否依然忠于游说家格罗夫·诺奎斯特(Grover Norquist)的“纳税人保护誓言。措辞谨慎的答复是,这位广受茶党欢迎的人效忠宪法和威斯康辛州的选民。这听起来似乎是一种进步。
Mr Obama holds the advantage. Without a deal, all of George W. Bush’s tax cuts will expire, leaving Republicans with the opprobrium for attacking middle class living standards. On the other hand, the president has his own incentive to strike a bargain. Restoring America is his big second-term ambition. For that he needs a budget deal.
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