奥巴马处于优势的地位,如果无法达成协议,乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)的所有减税措施都将失效,使得共和党背负降低中产阶级生活标准的骂名。另一方面,总统也有达成妥协的激励。恢复美国元气是其第二任期的雄心,因此他需要一项预算协议。
Looking ahead, as long as the US does not follow Europe in the self-defeating game of competitive austerity, the fiscal gap can be closed over time through a less than draconian mix of tax increases and spending cuts alongside sustained growth. The US economy has already shown a vibrancy that European governments would die for.
展望未来,只要美国不像欧洲那样投入竞相紧缩的自毁游戏,财政缺口可以通过结合较为缓和的增税和削减支出,加上可持续的经济增长来逐渐弥合。美国经济已经展现出欧洲各国政府可望不可即的活力。
The big reason for optimism is structural rather than cyclical. Short-term storms have obscured longer-term trends. These are on America’s side. There is no need to take my word for it. Ask the Chinese.
对美国乐观的主要原因是结构性,而不是周期性的。短期的风暴模糊了长期的趋势,而后者有利于美国。没必要听我的“一面之词,不妨去问中国人。
A year or so ago, the Beijing-based Chinese Institute for Contemporary International Relations made a detailed assessment of the various components of US power. The CICIR serves China’s intelligence agencies and has a reputation for unvarnished analysis. It found many more entries on the positive than on the negative side of the US balance sheet.
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