大约一年前,北京中国现代国际关系研究院(CICIR)对美国实力的各种构成进行了一项细致的评估。CICIR为中国的情报机构服务,以实事求是的分析而著称。该机构发现,美国的“资产负债表上,积极因素要比消极因素多得多。
Some of these strengths speak for themselves. America’s military reach will be unrivalled for decades. It has a stable political system. The country’s demographic profile is significantly better than that of any potential rival. Washington sits at the centre of the world’s most powerful alliance system. Its intelligence capabilities are unmatched. The US has huge advantages in technological prowess and intellectual resources. Around the world it exerts a strong cultural draw. It has a global outlook.
一些优势是显而易见的。几十年内,美国的军事实力都将是无可企及的。美国拥有稳定的政治体制。这个国家的人口结构特征远远好于任何潜在的竞争对手。华盛顿是世界最强大联盟体系的核心,其情报能力也是无人能及的。在技术力量和智力资源上,美国有着巨大的优势。美国文化渗透到世界各个角落。它有着全球视野。
The Chinese identified some counterpoints: an underperforming economy, rising public debt and deficits, social polarisation and political gridlock in Washington. What’s striking, though, is the qualitative nature of the pluses and minuses. The advantages are mostly permanent. The security afforded by geography is not something the US can lose. The same can be said for abundant natural resources and relative resilience against climate change. Compare this with the identified weaknesses. With a measure of political resolve, they are all more or less tractable.
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