中国现代国际关系研究院也找到了美国的一些弱点:经济欠佳,公共债务和赤字不断增加,社会两极分化,华盛顿陷于政治僵局。然而,令人印象深刻的是这些优势和弱点的性质。优势大部分是永久的。地理位置赋予美国的安全是不会丢失的。丰富的自然资源和对抗气候变化的相对弹性也是如此。将这些优势与找到的弱点相比,只要有一定的政治决心,这些弱点基本上都是可控的。
The implications of the exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves has been underestimated. Most obviously, shale oil and gas will reduce dependency on Middle East petrocarbons. Over time that will encourage a scaling back in the US commitment to the region’s security, freeing up economic and military resources for Mr Obama’s pivot to Asia. Countries such as China that are heavily dependent on imported energy will be much more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
美国对非传统石油和天然气的开采的影响也一直被低估。最明显的是,页岩油和页岩气将减轻美国对中东的依赖。假以时日,那将促使美国减少对该地区安全的承诺,使美国腾出经济和军事资源,推进奥巴马的转向亚洲战略。中国等严重依赖进口能源的国家在地缘政治冲击中将变得更加脆弱。
The big gain, though, comes in the form of the competitive stimulus promised by abundant cheap gas. The age of offshoring is likely to give way to the era of onshoring. The US growth rate will rise and the current account deficit will shrink.
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2020-09-15
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