美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)和他在美联储内部的盟友认为,这一切都在按他们的预想发挥著作用。不过他们也经常提醒说,仅此不足以让美国经济复元,并且这一做法也不是没有风险的。批评者说,这一政策没有带来多大好处,而且风险比贝南克意识到的要大。现在,支持贝南克的新任美联储理事斯坦(Jeremy Stein)说,购买债券的措施可能还带来了看不见的好处。
One oft-cited risk the Fed is running is that keeping rates very low for a long time could lead investors, big and small, to take ever-greater risks as they seek investments that promise better returns. That, in turn, could create a new set of financial bubbles. 'These concerns should be taken very seriously, and a lot of work at the Fed is devoted to monitoring such risks,' Mr. Stein said in a speech last month. '[T]here is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market, but we are not seeing anything quantitatively alarming at this point. Of course, the worry is that one often sees only the tip of the iceberg in these kinds of situations.'
人们常说美联储面临着这样一个风险:长时间把利率维持在非常低的水平,可能会导致大大小小的投资者在寻找有望产生更大回报的投资产品时承担越来越大的风险,进而有可能产生一系列新的金融泡沫。斯坦在上个月的一篇讲话中说,这些担忧应该非常认真地对待,美联储所做的很多事情都是为了监测这些风险。他说,虽然有一些质化证据表明市场某些部分存在只顾收益率的行为,但目前我们没有看到任何值得警惕的量化证据;当然,令人担心的一点是,这些情况下人们看到的问题常常只是冰山一角。
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