The Treasury's official explanation: We're trying to finance the government at the lowest cost to taxpayers. We aren't using a borrowing mix to influence the macro economy, and we aren't coordinating with the Fed on this. As the chart accompanying this column illustrates, the Fed's recent purchases of long-term Treasurys have more than offset the Treasury's moves in the opposite direction.
对此美国财政部给出的官方解释是:我们正努力以让纳税人承担最低成本的方式来为政府融资,我们并不是在使用贷款组合影响美国宏观经济,而且我们也没有就此事与美联储协调一致;正如随附表格显示的,美联储近期购买长期国债的举动与财政部的举措背道而驰,完全抵消了我们的所作所为。
Business is reacting as the academics predicted: 77.8% of non-financial corporate borrowing is for a year or more at the 2011 tally, up from 69.7% just before the crisis, according to the latest Greenwood-Hanson estimates. Their chief financial officers are taking advantage of long-term rates they don't expect to see again in their lifetimes. Financial firms are doing the same, with an extra prod from regulators pushing them to be less vulnerable to droughts in the short-term money markets. 'All else being equal, this development is a good thing from a financial-stability perspective,' Mr. Stein argued.
企业界的反应与学术界的预测并无二致。据格林伍德和汉森最近的估算,2011年举债的非金融类企业中有77.8%的贷款期限为一年或以上,高于金融危机前夕的69.7%。这些企业的首席财务长正在抓住眼下的时机,他们认为这辈子可能再也遇不到如此低水平的长期利率了。金融类企业也在这么做,原因是监管方专门出手干预,好让它们在短期货币市场的“枯竭期不那么不堪一击。斯坦坚持认为,如其他条件相同,那么从金融稳定的角度看,这是件好事。
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