Meanwhile, next year could add another driver: replacements.
与此同时,明年汽车市场将增添另一个驱动力:换车需求。
It has been about five years since China's car sales exploded in 2009. Consumers who ventured into the market then are looking to change their old cars, reckons Macquarie's Janet Lewis. Plus, more drivers are using car loans. The share of buyers using loans tripled to 15% in 2013 from 2009, according to J.D. Power.
中国距2009年出现汽车销量爆发式增长已经过去五年时间。麦格理(Macquarie)分析师Janet Lewis认为,当年的购车者将会考虑换车。此外,更多购车者使用汽车贷款。J.D. Power的数据显示,2013年贷款购车比例上升至15%,是2009年的三倍。
This sophisticated second-time buyer with access to financing likely will purchase a luxury or utility vehicle, Ms. Lewis says. That is one reason both these segments look promising. LMC forecasts luxury car sales rising by 23% in 2017.
Lewis表示,这些精明的二次购车者在贷款的帮助下将购买豪华车或运动型多用途车(SUV)。这是两个市场领域前景看好的一个理由。LMC预计,2017年豪华车销量将增长23%。
The question for investors is how to capitalize on all this. Auto stocks rallied 36% this year, so there may be little more to be gained. Leading SUV-maker Great Wall Motor's shares climbed 80%, but now its margins are moderating. On the other hand, BMW's local partner Brilliance China Automotive should enhance its profits from 2017 as it boosts scale.
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