Once you conflate sovereign and financial sector risk, the situation becomes more complicated. My bottom line is that the national backstops have not removed, and have possibly increased, the total solvency risk in the system.
一旦你把主权风险和金融业风险混在一起,情况就会变得更为复杂。我的最终结论是,国家施以援手不但没有消除、反而可能加大了这个体系中的整体偿付风险。
Even worse, I believe the outlook for solvency has deteriorated over the past six months due to the effects of austerity on growth at a time when interest rates have hit their lower limit. The economists Dawn Holland and Jonathan Portes have pointed out one other reason why the fiscal multiplier is unusually high at the moment: everyone is pursuing austerity at the same time. We may well have crossed the line where austerity not only raised debt ratios in the short run, which is to be expected, but may end up increasing them even in the long run – so that it becomes self-defeating.
更糟糕的是,我认为,过去6个月,由于在利率触及下限之际实施紧缩对于增长的影响,偿付能力前景已经恶化。经济学家道恩·霍兰德(Dawn Holland)和乔纳森·波特斯(Jonathan Portes)指出了财政乘数目前处于不寻常高位的另一个原因:所有人在同时推行紧缩。我们很有可能越过了一个界限,使得紧缩不仅仅在短期内提升了债务比率(人们预测会如此),而且甚至可能会最终在长期内提升这一比率——这就变成了弄巧成拙。
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