I concede that these conditions, especially the fourth, could restore solvency everywhere except in Greece. The problem is that they stand in contrast to official policy. The ECB has only announced the OMT programme. So far, nobody has made an application. The Spanish prime minister is still playing hard to get and I doubt he will make an application this year. The OMT may end up as a phantom. As in Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale – I am writing this column from Denmark – it may not be very long until some child in the bond markets points out that Mario Draghi has no clothes.
我承认,这些条件(特别是第4个)可能会恢复除希腊之外所有国家的偿付能力。问题是它们与官方政策形成对立。欧洲央行只是宣布了OMT计划。迄今为止,没有国家提出申请。西班牙首相仍在欲擒故纵,但我猜,他今年会提出申请。该计划可能最终变得有名无实。就像在安徒生(Hans Christian Andersen)的童话故事里一样——我是在丹麦撰写这篇专栏文章的——可能不久以后,债券市场的某个孩子就会指出,马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)身上什么都没穿。
Second, it has been, and continues to be, official policy that countries must heap one austerity programme on top of another if they miss nominal deficit targets – which they do because they keep underestimating the fiscal multiplier. Finally, even though I assume that eurozone leaders want to set up a meaningful banking union, I see no chance that this will lead to a separation of banking and sovereign risks. Angela Merkel stated clearly that this was not going to happen.
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