其次,官方政策一直、也将继续是:如果各国没有实现名义赤字目标(而它们也确实没有实现,因为它们一直低估财政乘数),就必须一个接一个地实行紧缩计划。最后,即使我假设,欧元区领导人想要建立一个发挥作用的银行业联盟,我也认为这不可能造成银行业风险和主权风险分离。更何况安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)明确表示,不会支持建立银行业联盟。
The main significance of the OMT, should it ever become a reality, would be to prevent a contagious spiral between bank debt and sovereign debt for approximately two to three years. This would be important in its own right, but does not in itself improve the underlying solvency of the various entities, given current policy choices.
假如OMT成为现实,其主要意义将在于,在大约2至3年内防范银行债务和主权债务发生传染性的螺旋上升。这一点本身很重要,但鉴于目前的政策选择,它本身不会改善不同实体的根本偿付能力。
You have to make some brave assumptions about the future – continued rollover, separation of banking and sovereign risks, readiness for fiscal transfers, readiness to abandon austerity – all of which stand in complete contrast to officially announced policies. Solvency thus depends on the assumption that official policy is a lie. One could make that assumption, of course. I have not, and would not.
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