When debates shift, one often observes that the losing side becomes pseudo-pragmatic. I am seeing more and more pro-European Germans effectively embracing the eurosceptic narrative. They say that eurobonds and joint deposit insurance are politically impractical in the current climate, and are instead searching for implausible second-best solutions. A good example has been the proposal by the Council of Economic Advisers of a jointly guaranteed debt redemption bond – a debt instrument that looks like a eurobond on the outside, but is an austerity tool deep down.
当辩论发生改变时,我们经常观察到失利一方会变得假装务实起来。我看到,越来越多亲欧洲的德国人实际上开始接受欧洲怀疑论。他们表示,欧元区共同债券(eurobond)和联合存款保险计划在当前气候下不具备政治可行性,然后他们努力寻找一些让人难以信服的次优方案。德国经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)提出发行联合担保的“偿债债券(debt redemption bond),就是一个很好的例子。该债券从外表看上去像是欧元区债券,但在本质上是一种紧缩工具。
Perhaps the most depressing aspect of this situation is that Mr Draghi’s success last week may end up producing a weaker macroeconomic policy response overall. Having isolated Mr Weidmann over bond purchases, Mr Draghi cannot afford to repeat this act when it comes to the general conduct of monetary policy. I suspect that the ECB may now be less inclined to cut interest rates further, and more inclined to raise them at the first false dawn of economic recovery. I only hope I am wrong on this because it would be a disaster. As I argued last week, I am also not optimistic on the other critical component of a crisis resolution strategy – a banking union that can act as an indirect economic transfer mechanism to insure against the risk of persistent internal imbalances.
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