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央行独立时代即将结束

假设日本央行不具备相关政策工具。最直接的办法将是开动印钞机多印钞票，即显著扩大预算赤字规模，并通过向中央银行出售新发行的政府债券为赤字融资。届时，中央银行的政治化就将基本完成：中央银行将沦为政府的一个下属机构。

We cannot possibly know how the Japanese public would behave under those circumstances. Would they view a helicopter drop as a logical extension of unconventional policies, leading to a modest rise in inflation? Or would they take the view that the BoJ was now a passive agent of fiscal policy, no longer able to offer monetary discipline? If so, it surely would not be long before they dumped their yen, triggering a shift from excessively low to excessively high inflation.

我们无法预知日本公众在这种情况下会做出怎样的反应。他们是否会接受可能致通胀水平温和上升的印钞行为，并将其看做是非常规政策的合理延伸？抑或，他们会不会认为，日本央行已沦为被动服务于财政政策的机构，不再具备维持货币纪律的能力？若果真如此，则不需多时，日本民众就将抛售手中的日元，导致日本的通货膨胀率从极低的水平升至过高的水平。

I know it is hard to imagine, particularly in a country dogged by deflation. But following two decades of central bank independence, we have to face facts. They can no longer be properly “independent because their policies are creating both winners and losers. They are making decisions that are inherently political. Once politicians recognise this they will surely be tempted to take over the reins. At that point, monetary stability, for good or bad, can no longer be guaranteed.