灰犀牛 grey rhino
“灰犀牛”(grey rhino)这一概念是由美国学者、古根海姆学者奖得主米歇尔•渥克(Michele Wucker)于2013年1月在达沃斯全球论坛上提出的,在她所著的《灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机(The Gray Rhino: How to Recognise and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore)》一书中,她提出,“灰犀牛就是指概率极大、冲击力极强却被忽视的风险(a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat):一个我们应该意识到的风险,就像是一头两吨重的犀牛,把牛角对准我们全速向我们攻击”。
比黑天鹅更可怕的“灰犀牛”到底是啥?
Grey rhinos are not random surprises, but problems that break out after a series of warnings and visible evidence. When the grey rhino attacks, its power is explosive and unstoppable.
灰犀牛不是随机的突发事件,而是一系列预警和明显征兆之后爆发出来的问题。灰犀牛袭击时,极具爆发力,且不可阻挡。
米歇尔•渥克曾经在采访中给出的一个典型的忽视灰犀牛的例子就是柯达。
Kodak had ignored the unstoppable trend of digital photography and was too focused on its existing business. As a result, it missed the opportunity of being good at making what was about to come next.
柯达忽视了数码摄影技术不可阻挡的潮流,而一心专注于现有业务。结果,他们错过了在新技术领域脱颖而出的机会。
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