4月份，衡量通缩的生产者价格指数(PPI)同比下降了4.6%，降幅较之前有所加大。今年第一季度，工业利润下降了2.7%，而卖地收入——资金短缺的地方政府的一项主要收入来源——同比下降了近三分之一。

The main concern is that falling industrial profits could render companies less able to servicetheir huge debts, prompting them to call off or postpone investment plans and driving anupsurge in non-performing loans that would dissuade banks from lending. Indeed, fixed-assetinvestment growth is already declining significantly: falling to 12 per cent in the January to Aprilperiod.

主要问题在于，工业利润下滑可能致使企业偿还巨额债务的能力降低，促使它们取消或推迟投资计划，并导致不良贷款激增、打击银行放贷兴趣。事实上，固定资产投资增长已在大幅下滑：今年头四个月里已下降了12%。

Such strains are exacerbated by another factor. Although Beijing has loosened monetarypolicy three times over the past six months, real interest rates are rising sharply as deflationbites. They climbed to 10.8 per cent in March, their highest level since the financial crisis.Nominal average lending rates are lower, at 6.6 per cent, but still anomalously high in a world inwhich some $2tn in bonds trade at negative yields.

另一因素进一步加重了这些压力。虽然过去6个月中国政府已经三次放松货币政策，但随着通缩开始显现出威力，实际利率正在大幅攀升。3月份，实际利率已升至10.8%，为本次金融危机以来的最高水平。名义平均贷款利率相对较低，为6.6%，但在世界上约2万亿美元债券的收益率为负时，这一利率仍显得高得出奇。

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