要理解这一点,不妨看一下波多黎各的数据。二三十年前,这块拥有350万人口的美国领地的经济增长率相当可观,这是因为大规模的美国军事存在,加上税收优惠吸引来了美洲大陆的企业。但后来,税收优惠终止了,军事预算削减了。自2005年以来,按实际值计算,经济产出减少了约10%。
Normally, this might cause creditors to panic. But since global markets have been flush withliquidity, and municipal bonds offer tax breaks for American investors, money has insteadflooded in. That has enabled the government to maintain a generous welfare state, and agovernance culture that is (at best) inefficient and (at worst) rife with cronyism. Meanwhile,the debt-to-output ratio has surged above 100 per cent — or 150 per cent if unfundedliabilities, such as pensions, are included.
通常情况下,这或许会令债权人感到惊慌。但由于全球市场流动性充裕,市政债对美国投资者提供税收优惠,资金反而大规模涌入。这让波多黎各政府得以维持高福利政策,以及一种低效(往好里说)和裙带关系盛行(往坏里说)的治理文化。同时,债务与产出之比猛增至逾100%——如果计入养老金等无资金准备的债务,则为150%。
This pattern is unsustainable. So Prof Krueger — entirely sensibly — proposes two initiatives:Puerto Rico must implement structural reforms, such as cutting welfare payments and labourcosts; but it also needs to restructure the debt to a more sustainable level.
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