Why, then, do so many believe that a rate increase is necessary? I doubt that, if rates werenow 4 per cent, there would be much pressure to raise them. That pressure comes from asense that the economy has substantially normalised during six years of recovery, and so theextraordinary stimulus of zero interest rates should be withdrawn. There has been much talkof “headwinds that require low interest rates now but this will abate before long, allowing fornormal growth and normal interest rates.

那么，为什么有这么多人认为有必要加息呢?如果目前利率为4%，加息压力还会很大吗?我对此表示怀疑。压力来自一种观点，即美国经济经过6年的复苏已基本正常化，因此异常的零利率刺激应该退场了。很多人在说，眼下有一些“逆风需要低利率，但恶劣天气很快会过去，为正常增长和正常利率创造条件。

Whatever merit this view had a few years ago, it is much less plausible as we approach theseventh anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It is no longer easy to think ofeconomic conditions that can plausibly be seen as temporary headwinds. Fiscal drag is over.Banks are well capitalised. Corporations are flush with cash. Household balance sheets aresubstantially repaired.

无论这一观点在几年前有什么道理，在我们就要迎来雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭七周年之际，它的可信度已远远不如当初。现在，我们不再能够轻易把经济状况可信地视为暂时的“逆风。财政拖累结束了。银行的资本充足了。企业坐拥大量现金。家庭资产负债表基本上已修复。

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