The Obama administration, and a majority of the American people, want to avoid sendingAmerican soldiers back into Iraq yet again, and Isis cannot be destroyed from the air.Washington will therefore need friends to help. Nato allies (including Turkey), Iran, Iraqi militiagroups (Sunni and Shia) and Russia all have good reason to want to put Isis on its back. All willbe needed.
奥巴马政府以及大多数美国人都想避免让美军官兵重返伊拉克,而仅靠空中打击又无法消灭Isis。因此,华盛顿需要盟友的帮助。北约盟国(包括土耳其)、伊朗、伊拉克民兵组织(逊尼派和什叶派)以及俄罗斯都有很好的理由要消灭Isis。这一切都是美国需要的。
That means swallowing the idea that Iran, soon to be freed from sanctions, is now a regionalpowerbroker, that Mr Assad will remain in power and that Russia will play a larger and lastingrole in the Middle East. Mr Assad will use Iranian cash and Mr Putin’s military support to sidelinethe Syrian rebels that Washington wants to help. A strengthened alliance of Russia, Iran andSyria will put Israel, the Saudis and other US allies on edge. European sanctions on Russiawon’t last for ever. The US will act in the Middle East only to defend its core national interests.
这意味着美国将不得不接受一些令人不快的现实:即将被解除制裁伊朗的已成为地区权力掮客;阿萨德将继续掌权;俄罗斯将在中东发挥更大且持久的作用。阿萨德将使用伊朗提供的现金和普京的军事支持,把华盛顿想帮助的叙利亚反政府武装力量排挤出局。俄罗斯、伊朗及叙利亚之间加强盟友关系,将令以色列、沙特阿拉伯及其他美国的盟国感到不安。欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁不会永久持续下去。美国只有在捍卫核心国家利益时才会在中东采取行动。
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