去年股市崩盘,私人贷款发展缓慢。但在上周之前,中国债市一直走势良好。地方政府的投资部门和其他大型借款机构最近数月涌入债市,以低利率发行债券,偿还利率更高的银行贷款——这也正是政府的意图所在。今年前11个月,债券发行量比去年同期增长了47%。
What the government did not foresee was an explosion of speculative bond trading by Chinese banks.
政府没有预见的到是,中国各家银行进行的投机性债券交易出现了爆炸式增长。
Banks have increasingly raised money by selling wealth management products, investments that have the look and feel of dependable bank deposits and are usually sold to average investors. Banks rarely disclose what is behind those wealth management products and generally keep them off their books.
银行越来越多地通过出售理财产品筹集资金,这些产品看上去像是可靠的银行存款,通常出售给普通投资者。银行极少披露这些理财产品背后的内幕,而且通常也不把它们计入资产负债表。
Still, it is becoming increasingly clear that many of them are backed by bonds. The bond holdings of wealth management products more than doubled over the 18-month period that ended in June. Adding to the risks, banks are also making large, leveraged bets on the direction of bond prices.
然而,越来越清楚的是,很多理财产品都在以债券为支撑。理财产品的债券持有量在截至今年6月的18个月内翻了一番。除了这种风险之外,银行还使用大规模杠杆押注债券价格的走向。
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