一是全球增长动能不足,难以支撑世界经济持续稳定增长。世界经济增速处于7年来最低水平,全球贸易增速继续低于经济增速。短期性政策刺激效果不佳,深层次结构性改革尚在推进。世界经济正处在动能转换的换挡期,传统增长引擎对经济的拉动作用减弱,人工智能、3D打印等新技术虽然不断涌现,但新的经济增长点尚未形成。世界经济仍然未能开辟出一条新路。
First, lack of robust driving forces for global growth makes it difficult to sustain the steady growth of the global economy. The growth of the global economy is now at its slowest pace in seven years. Growth of global trade has been slower than global GDP growth. Short-term policy stimuli are ineffective. Fundamental structural reform is just unfolding. The global economy is now in a period of moving toward new growth drivers, and the role of traditional engines to drive growth has weakened. Despite the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and 3D printing, new sources of growth are yet to emerge. A new path for the global economy remains elusive.
二是全球经济治理滞后,难以适应世界经济新变化。前不久,拉加德女士告诉我,新兴市场国家和发展中国家对全球经济增长的贡献率已经达到80%。过去数十年,国际经济力量对比深刻演变,而全球治理体系未能反映新格局,代表性和包容性很不够。全球产业布局在不断调整,新的产业链、价值链、供应链日益形成,而贸易和投资规则未能跟上新形势,机制封闭化、规则碎片化十分突出。全球金融市场需要增强抗风险能力,而全球金融治理机制未能适应新需求,难以有效化解国际金融市场频繁动荡、资产泡沫积聚等问题。
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