In the Middle East, it will be a rough year that will hinder Barack Obama’s “pivot towards Asia. And there is even more unpleasant news: the Assad regime in Syria seems to be slipping towards its end but that is likely to lead to greater chaos. A military resolution, as opposed to a diplomatic one, will mean a violent power struggle and a period of sectarian retribution. The omens are also inauspicious in Iraq and Libya, where there seems a high likelihood of increased instability, power struggles and anti-western sentiment.
就中东而言,2013年将是艰难的一年,巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)将美国战略重心转向亚洲的计划也将因此受到妨碍。更加令人头疼的消息是:叙利亚的阿萨德(Assad)政权看来正在走向倒台,不过,那很可能会引发更大的混乱。通过军事手段而不是外交方式来解决叙利亚问题,将会导致充满暴力的权力斗争以及一段时期的派系复仇。在伊拉克和利比亚,也出现了不祥的兆头:看上去,那两个国家很可能会变得更加动荡,权力斗争和反西方情绪很可能会升级。
This is likely to drag the focus of western diplomacy back to the unfinished business of these three struggling countries and away from any renewed concentration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Iran’s nuclear programme. On the latter, those who have declared that the Iranian nuclear issue would be brought to a head this year may therefore be disappointed.
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