The enhanced fiscal drag tied to austerity programmes such as those in Greece, Portugal and Spain must have come as a nasty shock. During 2010 and 2011 some European central bankers were arguing that the boost to confidence from cutting deficits would mean that austerity might actually stimulate those economies. It did not. Instead, in the absence of interest rate reductions, the drop in incomes engendered by austerity so depressed tax receipts that the ratio of government debt-to-GDP has increased in southern Europe.
与类似希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙等国的紧缩方案相联系的财政拖累(fiscal drag)提高,肯定造成了非常严重的冲击。在2010年和2011年期间,一些欧洲国家的央行官员辩称,减赤对信心的提振可能意味着,紧缩可能在事实上对上述几个经济体产生刺激效果。事实上并非如此。相反,由于没有配合降息,紧缩造成的收入下降导致税收受到影响,南欧国家政府债务对国内生产总值(GDP)的比例事实上升高了。
Three lessons emerge from the larger negative fiscal multiplier implied by America’s liquidity trap and from Europe’s sad experience with austerity. First, do not even think about going over the fiscal cliff. Even a “half cliff – fiscal drag of 2.1 per cent of GDP – would put the US economy in a recession for all of 2013. Second, don’t expect the Federal Reserve to offset fiscal drag. It can’t. Conventional monetary policy cannot stimulate spending, because the Fed cannot lower interest rates. Nor can quantitative easing because it is being undercut by a growing demand for liquidity as businesses and households confront uncertainty, ranging from fiscal cliff negotiations to healthcare revisions and a possible collapse of the euro.
【别妄想跳下财政悬崖】相关文章:
★ 美国逼近财政悬崖
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2020-09-15
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