But the CBO estimates are far too conservative. The fiscal drag implied by going over the cliff would subtract about $1tn (6.3 per cent of gross domestic product) from projected growth over the 18 months from January 2013. Given the consensus forecast for 2 per cent growth next year, that leaves a growth rate of -2.2 per cent for 2013. This calculation is consistent with estimates reported in October by the IMF.
但国会预算办公室的测算结果过于保守。美国跌落财政悬崖带来的财政支出下降,将在始于2013年1月的18个月里导致美国经济预期增长量减少约1万亿美元(约占这段时期美国国内生产总值(GDP)的6.3%)。鉴于各界普遍预计下一年的美国经济增长率为2%,美国跌落财政悬崖将导致2013年美国经济出现2.2%的负增长。该结果与国际货币基金组织(IMF)今年10月发表的预测结果一致。
An extant American liquidity trap explains why the recession would be so severe. Such a trap exists when interest rates are frozen at zero and cannot fall. It magnifies the negative impacts of austerity. Absent the trap, the drag on GDP from tighter fiscal policy is usually mitigated by falling interest rates. Interest rates tend to fall, as household and business incomes drop and demand for money and credit shrinks. Lower interest rates then boost private sector spending, partially offsetting the fiscal drag from higher taxes and government spending cuts.
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