Justin also argued recently that because innovation and industrial upgrading form the most important growth drivers for the Chinese economy, investment is needed to continue to drive the economy, seemingly contrary to the current mainstream thinking that the Chinese economy needs to quickly become consumption-driven. In fact, Justin argued that infrastructure investment not only is a key driver for the Chinese economy, it should become a key economic driver globally, in developed and developing countries alike.
最近,林毅夫还提出,由于中国经济的增长点来自创新和产业升级,因此需要继续通过投资来拉动经济。这似乎和目前中国经济需要迅速以消费驱动的主流思想唱了反调。事实上,林毅夫认为基础设施投资不仅是推动中国经济继续增长的关键,也是包括发达国家和发展中国家在内的全球经济复苏和发展的驱动器。
Reflecting on Justin's views on these topics, three thoughts come to my mind.
林毅夫的这些观点使我想到了三个问题。
The first has to do with the role and capacity of state. With the demise of the market fundamentalism, the role of state in economic affairs is being radically reassessed. The capacity of state in many advanced economies is being questioned. The lack of such capacity, both in handling domestic economy and in coordinating economic policy internationally is alarming. In the US, the Fed has essentially run out of its powder after cutting Fed Fund Rates all the way to zero. Printing money, known as QE, seems to be the only thing left in its tool kit and I suspect that the day people realize that the emperor has no cloth is not too far in the future. On the fiscal side, it is hard to envision meaningful stimulus in the US, given the still elevated levels of public and private debt. The picture in most of Europe is even bleaker. In Japan, the government is not only unable to offer coherent economic policy, it cannot even stay in office for more than a few months.
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