The second thought is on investment vs consumption. As I argued in my column last month, China continues to need investment because China's capital stock per worker is about 40% less than other middle income East Asian countries and is merely 10% of US levels. Moreover, even if we assume an aggressive 10% consumption growth, it could take China 20 years to reach the level of Korea for consumption as a share of GDP, and 35 years to the level of US. So to expect household consumption to replace investment to become a bigger driver of the economy in the near term is unrealistic. China has far from finishing its industrialization process and industrial upgrading process calls for more investment.
第二个问题是投资与消费的关系。在上一篇专栏中我提到,中国经济仍然需要大量投资。和其他中等收入的东亚国家相比, 中国工人的人均资本存量不超过其40%,更仅仅是美国水平的10%。此外,即使我们假设消费每年增长10%,中国仍然需要20年才能赶上韩国消费占GDP的比重,要赶上美国的水平需要35年。因此,期望居民消费在短期内取代投资成为经济的主要驱动器是不现实的。中国在工业化和现代化的路上还有很长的路要走,经济在很长时期内还需要投资来驱动。
Justin's argument that China needs continued investment for industrial upgrading also means that the investment China needs to make now and in the future is different from what the country did in the past. China may want to consider more investments that improve people's quality of life and those that generate long-term sustainable economic and social returns. A good example is the new energy saving and environment protection industries, a new sector which now employs 28 million people and generate a total output of roughly $380 billion. According to NDRC Vice Chairman Xie Zhenhua, China plans over the next five years to invest another $315 billion in this sector, taking the total employment to 40 million and output to over $700 billion by 2015.
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