那么这类扭转局势的发现是人们自己创造的运气,还是更微妙的事情在发生呢?16世纪外交家尼可罗·马基亚维利(Niccolò Machiavelli)在《君主论》(The Prince)中指出,运气是不可能被控制的。然而,有时候运气只为那些足够聪明和敏捷的人提供机遇,这些人非常灵活,能够快速做出相应行动。这并不是创造运气,而是发现运气提供的机会,并在机会溜走之前快速行动抓住它们。
In order to manage luck, Mr Smith warns against being too prescriptive in strategic thinking. His experience as a cricket captain taught him that too much planning could be harmful and it was better to trust his players to react to what they found on the field. The same is true in business: “If you are committed to over-prescriptive, over-predictive, over-schematised courses of action then you are unable to react to serendipity. Sometimes, loosening rather than tightening and clarifying is the best way to expose yourself to opportunities.
为了把握好运气,史密斯反对在战略思维上过于教条。曾担任板球队队长的经历让他明白,过多的规划可能会有害,最好是信任队员在场上的表现。商业上也是同样的道理:“如果过于教条,过度预测,行动过于按部就班,那么你就无法抓住意外的机遇。有时候,放下而不是执着才是获得机遇的最佳方式。
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2020-09-15
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