长期以来,对于悲观的理论家而言,将中国的崛起与1914年之前德国的崛起进行对比一直是一种流行的做法。他们辩称,新兴强国时常会与老牌强国发生冲突。亚洲目前的危机也突显出一种更为准确的对比。在第一次世界大战爆发前的几年里,英国和德国都试图通过精心打造的同盟来互相遏制。后来,在1914年8月的危机中,它们被迫履行条约上的承诺,这可能是它们从未想过或者从未充分设想到的。
It has long been fashionable for gloomy theorists to compare the rise of China with the rise of Germany before 1914. The argument is that emerging great powers all too often come into conflict with established powers. The current crisis in Asia also points to a more precise parallel. In the years before the first world war, Britain and Germany both tried to deter each other by building up elaborate networks of alliances. Then, in the crisis of August 1914, they were compelled to honour treaty commitments in ways that they might never have intended or fully envisaged.
一个好消息是,从我们已知的各种情况来看,中美新一届领导集体都决心避免中美冲突。坏消息是,错误估计的风险和危险在上升。
The good news is that, from everything we know, the new leadership teams in Washington and Beijing are both determined to avoid conflict between the US and China. The bad news is that the risks and dangers of miscalculation are rising.
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2020-09-15
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