Hu Jintao, the outgoing leader of the Communist party, called explicitly for China to become a maritime power. In fact, this is already happening. China has now deployed its first aircraft carrier and aims to have several more. It is also developing missile and anti-satellite capabilities that threaten America’s military reach in the Pacific.
现在的重要问题是,以习近平为首的中国新一代领导集体在政策上是否会变得加倍强势。他们很有可能这样做。中国在一代人的时间里只知道快速经济增长,在此期间新一代领导集体在政治上成熟了起来。美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的问题以及2010年美国金融危机给他们留下了深刻的印象。显然,他们可能会高估中国的实力,低估美国的实力。
The big question now is whether the new generation of Chinese leaders, led by Xi Jinping, will double down on this more assertive policy. There is a strong chance that they will. This is a group that has come to political maturity during a generation in which China has known nothing but rapid economic growth. America’s problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US financial crisis of 2010, have made a deep impression on them. There is clearly a risk that they will overestimate Chinese strength and underestimate American power.
在新的领导集体背后,更年轻的一代中国人是喝着极端民族主义的“狼奶长大的。在“天安门事件之后,中国政府一直希望以一种新的全民叙述——在学校里反复灌输——获得合法性,强调爱国复兴以及为外国强权(尤其是日本)让中国蒙受的耻辱复仇。
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